The threat level is severe: what it means for event security this winter

Operational Tactical Strategic By Kris Dailly, OTAS Insights. Published 20 October 2026. Correct as of 20 October 2026.

Published by OTAS Live Ltd · United Kingdom

What changed

On 30 April 2026, the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) raised the UK national threat level from SUBSTANTIAL, meaning an attack is likely, to SEVERE, meaning an attack is highly likely [1]. The Home Office said it followed an attack in Golders Green, north London, the day before, but was not solely a result of it. The threat had been rising for some time [1]. MI5 still showed SEVERE on 20 October 2026 [2].

The national level covers the whole UK. Northern Ireland also has a separate level for Northern Ireland-related terrorism, which is SUBSTANTIAL [2]. Threat levels have no set expiry date and are kept under review [3].

What SEVERE means for events, and what it does not

MI5 says changes to threat levels do not necessarily require specific responses from the public. They are a tool for security practitioners and the police in deciding what protective security response may be needed [2]. It also says vigilance is vital whatever the level [2].

So SEVERE is not a warning about your event, and it is not a reason on its own to cancel. It is a reason to check that your plans are current, proportionate and understood by every team. ProtectUK says that if an attack happened in the UK, it is more likely to be by a single attacker using simple methods, at a venue or a publicly accessible location, and asks organisations to use that in their risk assessments [4]. We give no more detail than that.

Why winter matters

Counter Terrorism Policing says winter events such as festive markets, pantomimes and concerts can be an attractive target, and that with the change in threat level it is more important than ever for organisers to do their part [5]. Its free winter vigilance campaign carries one message: if you see something that does not feel right, report it [5]. The toolkit includes posters, screen and social media assets, audio announcements and staff guidance, with versions for Christmas markets, ice rinks and festive lights [5]. It also describes the campaign as a deterrent and a free extra layer of protective security [5].

Martyn's Law this winter

The Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025 (Martyn's Law) became law on 3 April 2025, but its duties are not in force yet [15]. The Security Industry Authority (SIA) expects them to start in spring 2027 and will confirm the date [10]. When it does, qualifying events of 800 or more people with entry checks will need public protection procedures and measures. The four procedures are evacuation, invacuation, lockdown and communication [10]. Those procedures are good practice now.

Where this applies

England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The national threat level covers all four nations, and Part 1 of the 2025 Act, which holds the duties, extends to all four [2][14]. Northern Ireland also has its own level for Northern Ireland-related terrorism, which is SUBSTANTIAL [2].

What to do

Operational: stewards, security and crew

• Report anything that does not feel right to your supervisor or event control straight away [5][8]. Do not confront anyone.
• Know RUN HIDE TELL and your part in the event's procedures [7].
• Keep security arrangements off social media [10].

Tactical: event, safety and security leads

• Brief every shift on reporting and response, including late starters.
• Use the winter campaign materials from arrival to departure, and in staff areas [5].
• Walk through evacuation, invacuation, lockdown and communication with the teams who will use them [10].

Strategic: organisers, directors and licence holders

• Record a review of your security risk assessment since 30 April 2026 [1].
• Resource in proportion to your own risk assessment, not the national level alone [2].
• Fund ACT Awareness e-learning and briefing time for staff and volunteers [5][6].
• Check whether you will be in scope of the 2025 Act, and at which tier [10][12].

Action box

Frequently asked questions

What is the UK terrorism threat level now?

SEVERE, meaning an attack is highly likely. It was raised on 30 April 2026 and was still SEVERE on 20 October 2026 [1][2].

Does SEVERE mean I should cancel my winter event?

Not by itself. MI5 says a change of level does not necessarily require a specific response. Review your own risk assessment and plans [2].

Do Martyn's Law duties apply to Christmas events this year?

No. The 2025 Act became law on 3 April 2025, but its duties are not in force yet. The SIA expects them to start in spring 2027 [10][15].

Where can event organisers get free counter terrorism advice?

ProtectUK and the National Protective Security Authority (NPSA) publish free guidance, and the winter vigilance toolkit is free [2][5].

How do staff report something suspicious?

Tell a supervisor or event control straight away. Counter Terrorism Policing also takes reports online. In an emergency, call the emergency services [8].

What we don't know yet

How long SEVERE will last, the confirmed start date of the duties, and when the SIA's final guidance will appear. The full report sets these out.

Interest: OTAS Live Ltd, which publishes EPGN, sells event operations services.

Corrections: Errors are corrected openly, on every format, and logged with the date. If you spot an error, tell us using the contact details on the OTAS Insights page. To ask for this article in another format, use the same contact details.

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Related OTAS Insights: the duty to prevent harassment of crew by the public, https://otas.live/insights/employer-harassment-duty/ and travel safety for event crews working abroad, https://otas.live/insights/middle-east-travel-safety/

Edited by Kris Dailly, who has worked in event operations since 2008, and internationally since 2015.

Last updated: 20 October 2026. Published by OTAS Insights.

References

All web sources were opened and checked on 20 October 2026.

1. Home Office and the Home Secretary, 'Threat level increase following antisemitic terror attack' (news story, 30 April 2026). https://www.gov.uk/government/news/threat-level-increase-following-antisemitic-terror-attack
2. MI5, the Security Service, 'Threat levels' (current national threat level, Northern Ireland-related threat level and threat level history). https://www.mi5.gov.uk/threats-and-advice/terrorism-threat-levels
3. ProtectUK (Counter Terrorism Policing), 'Terrorism threat levels' (ProtectUK publication date 1 May 2026). https://www.protectuk.police.uk/threat-levels
4. ProtectUK, 'Understanding the threat'. https://www.protectuk.police.uk/understanding-threat
5. ProtectUK, 'Winter Vigilance Campaign Digital Toolkit' (Action Counters Terrorism winter vigilance campaign, Counter Terrorism Policing). https://www.protectuk.police.uk/digital-toolkits/winter-vigilance-campaign-digital-toolkit
6. ProtectUK, '#BeSafeBeSound Campaign: Digital Toolkit for the UK's Live Music Industry' (ProtectUK publication date 1 June 2023). https://www.protectuk.police.uk/digital-toolkits/besafebesound-campaign-digital-toolkit-uks-live-music-industry
7. ProtectUK, 'RUN HIDE TELL' (ProtectUK publication date 21 May 2026). https://www.protectuk.police.uk/advice-and-guidance/response/run-hide-tell
8. Counter Terrorism Policing, 'Action Counters Terrorism' (report suspicious activity online). https://www.gov.uk/ACT
9. ProtectUK, 'Roadmap to improved security and preparedness' (published 16 June 2026). https://www.protectuk.police.uk/advice-and-guidance/roadmap
10. Security Industry Authority (SIA), 'Understanding Martyn's Law and the SIA's role as regulator' (published 17 July 2026). https://www.gov.uk/guidance/understanding-martyns-law-and-the-sias-role-as-regulator
11. Home Office, 'Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025' (collection, last updated 10 September 2026). https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/terrorism-protection-of-premises-act-2025
12. Home Office, 'The Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025' (statutory guidance, published 15 April 2026, last updated 25 August 2026). https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-terrorism-protection-of-premises-act-2025
13. Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025, 2025 c. 10 (legislation.gov.uk). https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2025/10/contents
14. Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025, section 36 (extent). https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2025/10/section/36
15. Terrorism (Protection of Premises) Act 2025, introductory text as enacted, Royal Assent 3 April 2025 (legislation.gov.uk). https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2025/10/introduction/enacted

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